The Richardson Factor

Mark Richardson rocked as a cricketer. He started off as a number 11 left arm spin bowler and ended up a NZ test opener with one of the best records of any NZ test opener, only Glen Turner can match him in terms of averages! The thing that was brilliant about Mark Richardson is that he played to his strengths and within his limitations. He was rudely exposed in One Day cricket, but in test cricket, he played to his strengths.

The England rugby team demonstrated the same at the recent world cup. They played brilliantly to their strengths, forward brutality and Johnny W kicking teams off the park.

South Africa too dominated in the same way. Brilliant line out, great half back, awesome defence, and picked up the scraps with their devastatingly quick wings.

NZ on the other hand to me had an identity crisis and have fatal flaws. They want to play the razzle dazzle game but in the quarter final lost their mojo. They tried to play like England. Through the season they dropped too much ball. They are a team that has to work out their strengths and play to them. We need the Mark Richardson factor.

One more example. Two netball world cups ago, we consistently lost to Australia. We had brilliant players but the team made too many errors and lacked consistency. Eventually they settled and began to reduce the error rate and played to their strengths, especially Irene van Dyk. They won the last world cup and commonwealth games.

To me the AB's have to develop a solid game plan with a reduced error rate, but maintaining their attacking superiority over other teams. We need the Richardson factor. We need to isolate our areas of superiority and become increasingly brilliant at them. Then a very good team may become a great team.

Tana and Justin

Is it any coincidence that the departure of these legends came about at the time when the AB's began to slip? To compound it we left Mauger, Howlett and Jack on the bench! I think we underestimate the greatness of these veterans.

Awesome Boks!

Brilliant win South Africa. Rubbish game, but a great win. They had a great draw, England twice, no NZ, Aust or France; but, who cares, awesome! Great pack. Brilliant half back, wonderfully talented second five, great goal kicker, awesome field position and fantastic defence. They were and are the number one team at the moment. And their lineout is sensational! No holds barred, congratulations. England were gutsy but had no attacking power. They nearly scored, but the 3rd ref got it right, unfortunately. Way to go Argentina, awesome performance. Their great win over France indicates how appallingly the AB's played! In 6 months the AB's have gone from the best team in the world to well below their standard, the South Africans in the last year have gone from number 2 to number 1. Things change and so why worry about 4 years ago except to pick the best team and go for it.

True!

Here's an article by J. Davies an ex-Welsh superstar which from a different point of view identifies where the AB's went wrong. I think it has a point: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/4/story.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=10470084.

Richard Loe too puts it well: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/topic/story.cfm?c_id=476&objectid=10469742.

John Mitchell is on to it. I still think he should have been given another go after the last world cup, but he made too many enemies: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/topic/story.cfm?c_id=476&objectid=10469122.

And on drop goals: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/4/story.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=10469269

No surprise

South Africa's comprehensive win today is no surprise. They are a complete side now. What happened today should have happened twice for the AB's, knocking over France and then England with strong forward play, defence, goal kicking and attacking. Instead, the AB's were poorly prepared and foundered on inadequate preparation.

What a dream run for the South Africans; has any team ever had a run like this? Fiji and then Argentina in the play-offs! Neither of these sides are equipped to win the cup.

I can't see England beating the Boks. They fought well against France but the match showed that neither the French or the English have the x-factor. I predict a good win to the Boks. They are playing with passion and belief. They are fine-tuned. They have had an easy run and so have fuel in the tank. They have brilliance out wide and devastation upfront. I think it will be closer than 36-0 as the English are better than that and are playing much better. But I can't see them winning.

Who do I want to win? Neither. I can't stomach the thought that either England or SA have won 2 world cups and we in NZ only 1. Well that proves that we are not the number one team in the world despite our claims to this. We don't know how to prepare to win the cup. Oh well, I will go for the Boks. They are Southern Hemisphere and they play a good brand of rugby. For rugby's sake, I hope the Boks get up.

I think the NZRFU's decision to leave players out of the Super 14 helped this occur. In that time SA grew and arm and a leg in confidence and now are en-route to rule the world. Fancy winning a cup without playing France, NZ, Wales, Ireland, Scotland or Australia! Interesting! The cards have sure fallen for the Boks.

Dear Graham...

Just watched the England-France game! England! Who would have thought it after SA, Tonga and Samoa!

Yet, months ago in this blog I warned the world that if Johnny got back in the team and in form, England would be a force! They are, they were! I hadn't realised how well Johnny was playing, brilliant. He is back, the number one first five in the world. King Johnny gave Graham, Dan C and the others a lesson in first five play today. A legend. England are timing their peak brilliantly. They are doing what must be done in a tournament, peaking at the conclusion! Well done England...

We saw starkly the problem with the AB's last week. The Poms play week in week out, huge demands on them from their clubs. They come together for their national team, usually under prepared because of club demands. Yet, when the trench warfare of international rugby at the top level begins, they are are tough! They are resilient. They have had no rotation or reconditioning, but they know how to win. They were prepared to drop goals, they know how to play this type of rugby.

I am now even more upset over last week. We have the most naturally talented and brilliant players, but they were robbed by dumb coaching! I see it now, I should have seen it earlier. I was never sure that you can prepare for rugby in the gym and training. I certainly couldn't do it when I played Auckland senior rugby in the 80's. I needed game time. I told myself, that these coaches knew better, the modern training methodologies had changed things. I see now it hasn't changed! I should have shouted from the roof, but I too was sucked in, even if I wasn't a hundred percent sure.

Like all sports, you prepare for rugby by playing. You get fit as hell, get the skills as honed as possible, then you play and get better. You don't do it training!

So for the next four years, play it all AB's. Forget the world cup until we are 6 weeks out. Play the A team in every test, ; make the AB jersey worth something; build a team of tough men who are uncompromising and can handle the pressure, who have combinations, who have been through hell fighting for their places. If they can't handle the pressure, drop them. If they want holidays on the beach, more money, moan about the workload, drop them, they are not the type of men who will win the trench warfare of world cup play-offs. They can go and dig a ditch or do a 40+ hour job like the rest of us. It is time to get hard! A few old values... so...

Dear Graham, Steve and Wayne,
Do the decent thing. Resign! You screwed up a great team. You had more depth than any other nation but decided that you needed to rotate players to increase our depth superiority, a waste of time and talent. In-so-doing you screwed them up; as the other players of the world were playing and improving their game, we sat back and thought we were there.

Just when the rest of the world was on the rack, terrified of the best AB team for 10 years, you screwed them up by wrapping them in cotton wool, training them in the gym and on the training field and not letting them play. You clearly messed with their minds. They didn't develop their top two inches, their leadership, and couldn't hack the pressure.

What better way to get hard than trying to beat down the rising South African threat in the Super 14; instead they were in the gym! Then play the A team in every test, building combinations, winning the Trinations (as you did).

Then taking on the NPC. Then they should have been pulled out with a couple of warm up games in Europe against England and France! South Africa played warm up games. So, you screwed up, admit it, humble yourselves and admit it!

Do the decent thing! I love you all. You are great coaches and have done some great things, but you got this wrong. Do the right thing, apologise to the players, to the nation and fall on your swords. Graham, you have had more than enough goes with Wales, the Lions and the AB's. Wayne, you have had a couple of goes. Steve, I know it is tough, but you are now tainted. You too bought into the rotation and reconditioning nonsense. It is over for you all! It is time for a change. I still can't believe you have not already called it quits. So, on behalf of many others, announce your resignations so we can get on with the business.

Enough!

Semifinal time

So who will win the semi's now that the AB's and the Wallabies are out? France I believe will defeat England. They have had their glitch against the Argentinians. They will be too strong at home, having the psychological edge on them. Having said that, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the English got up. I hope not, it is a sad day for world rugby if 10man rugby wins the world cup. Mind you, it will, they all play it now and the AB's unbelievably did so last week, and lost!

While many commentators are picking the Argentinians I think the South Africans will be too strong. They are a great side and may win the tournament. I think the Argentinians will meet their match this time, the South Africans have to me their match up front, and superiority in the backs. Again, nothing would surprise me either way though!

The final then will probably be France-South Africa. But then I thought the AB's and Wallabies would win. How about the bloke who put a $1 million on the AB's last week; he must be feeling good!

On deeper reflection

So where are we at?

To me, while I have always loved Graham Henry, I think it is time for him to go. He has had a great career, won many titles, began the Welsh revival; but with the Lions and AB's he did not quite scale the heights of rugby immortality. Wayne Smith will not coach them again. I think it is Robbie Deans time. He is the man of the moment, he is at his peak, he is poised. We missed John Hart when it was his moment, he getting his chance 10 years too late. Perhaps the same is true of Graham Henry who should have coached the AB's after his glorious time with Auckland. John Mitchell was 10 years too early. Deans is ready! Don't let the Aussies have him.

What about the players? Mils is off and Leon M has had his day. Perhaps Corey Jane from Wellington will get his chance now. Doug is off, but the Fijians are ready to go and Smith is waiting in the wings. Hamilton and Hosea Gear are also good.

At centre we have good options, Tuiava, Smith and Nonu. In the midfield we are losing both Mauger and sadly Luke M, who to me is a brilliant player, who will only get better as he matures. Second five will be interesting in 2008. This is wide open to me. Perhaps Tuiava will be 2nd five and one of the others centre.

Daniel Carter, Nick Evans, Stephen Donald, Stephen Brett; we have first fives everywhere; excellent depth.

Byron chose the right time to go, he to me has never quite scaled that final summit of greatness; a fine player, but not quite a Gregan or Farr-Jones. Leonard, Wipu, Ellis; we have no problems at half back.

Nos 8 is still strong with So'oialo, Luaki, Tualii, Williams, Mika and others. Similarly the flankers with McCaw, Masoe, Collins, Latimer and others.

Locks are strong with Williams, Robinson, Eaton, Flavell, Ryan and young guys.

Props are strong with Haymen going but we still have Sommerville, Woodcock, Tialata and young guys coming through like Jamie Mackintosh.

At hooker we are losing Oliver but still have Mealamu, Hore and a host of others.

The truth is, we are still very strong.

To me the key is to forget the World Cup and seek to be the best team in the world as of the first game from the World Cup. We pick and A team of 22 and as injuries come, and they will, we build. We play week in week out. There needs to be space given for recovery and full restoration of fitness each year, but not during Super 14's, TriNations or other key events. We need to focus on the World Cup in the few months before it not now! Let's enjoy the time between and make the most of it. Let's develop mental strength, learning to win, to lose and to battle in adversity. Let's trust our depth and not worry about trying to create it, we actually have the greatest depth in the world.

Let's not worry about the Cup, who cares! We will deal with that when it comes. So bring on the Super 14 and 2008.

Are we finally growing up?

It feels different this time... losing the cup I mean. In 1999 and 2003 the losses at the world cup were more like a funeral followed by blood letting. Anger filled the airways, John Hart and John Mitchell were vilified, Taine Randell and Rueben Thorne were the world's worst captains. NZ rugby was rubbish and needed sorting.

This time it is definitely different. There was grief and sadness and there are calls for Henry's head. But this time, as we saw at Christchurch airport yesterday, things are different. I was proud to be a NZer yesterday, and my desire to support the AB's was given a great boost as 2000 or so Kiwi's welcomed home the AB's.

And that was good! The AB's have done brilliantly over the last four years. They have beaten the Lions, had a grand slam, won the trinations, Bledisloe and we have won all but one Super 14 title. It has been a very good era. They fell at the final post, well the third from final one, for sure; but one cannot be too critical.

Graham Henry, Wayne Smith and Hansen have done well. They have the best scrum in the world, have improved the lineout, have a great backline, and have done well.

There were some extraordinary circumstances in the game, some out of their control, others within. They screwed up on the two R's, rotation and reconditioning to me. They should have stopped rotating (and getting dizzy), and settled on the combo's. They should not have missed so much rugby. They lost their Mo Jo in the game, lost their nerve. Mentally, they did not quite get there. Then there was the French zeal which was spectacular on the day. And of course there was our friend from England, the ref. He had a shocker. Today's Herald's analysis was utterly brilliant. To win the game, with the ref in such a mood, required the AB's being more than 10% better than the French, and while they did dominate, they did not dominate sufficiently. I don't think he was a cheat, he was just out of his league in the pressure and buckled. I feel for him, he must be gutted... well he should be!

Anyway, we need to be supportive. This was different to 1999 and 2003 for sure. I am pleased we are growing up.

Spin off

One thing that is rather funny as a Christian and rugby lover is the impact that this will have on churches. Many churches had prepared special events on the Sunday's leading through to the final; all based on the assumption that the AB's would be there to the end. My own church was planning a breakfast for the semi-final with me saying a few words at a special service after. Now these events are off. I simply can't see people coming out to watch the France-England semi on the big screen! I heard of one church who were preparing a big event with Eroni Clarke speaking!

Perhaps the devil did it! He didn't want these events happening because it could lead to many unbelievers becoming Christians! I am joking! I know one minister who is rather miffed, they now having to prepare a normal service with a normal sermon! Life is like that!

Bugger

Months ago on this blog (http://sportdivine.blogspot.com/2007_03_01_archive.html) I said, 'From a NZ point of view this will be a huge challenge. To beat Ireland/France then Australia then South Africa/England in successive weeks is a huge challenge! If NZers think they have the cup in the bag, get real; this will be a gigantic challenge and it is anyone's cup!' I also suggested that we would play Ireland but possibly France. Bugger, we played France, and we lost.

So what went wrong.

1. Rotation, Reconditioning is retro! These ideas have some merit but the truth is that the AB coaching panel failed to prepare the A team in terms of combinations. Neither does reconditioning work, it leave players without enough rugby. While you need fitness and depth, you need a team well prepared with hard rugby. They didn't need the rotation, we have more players in every position than any nation in the world already! They didn't need the reconditioning, they needed to play! They should have played the Super 14, the tests and some of the NPC to be match hard. You could see at the 30 min mark that the AB's intensity began to drop. They never regained it. Shades of Sydney 2003 when the AB's fired nothing.

2. Wrong game plan! What happened. They decided to take it up the guts with one man running. It was clear early on that there was space out wide. When they went 13-0 up they should have continued to run and get Joe R and Sivivatu in the game. Instead they went into trench warfare, the French's own way of playing. Having said that, for all the talk of fitness, they weren't there. They hadn't played enough rugby or enough hard rugby.

3. A team of the wane? The signs were there earlier in the year if we admit it. In 2005-2006 this team peaked thrashing the Lions, a grand slam, Tri Nation titles etc. Most great teams last 3-4 years. I count 2003 as a its first year under Mitchell (apart from the semi) and they have lasted 3 years. The reconditioning and rotation policy was unnecessary and they lost momentum. They did not have the dominance this year in the TriNations or at the Cup. Tragic!

4. The rub of the green! It also was one of the those days. The French got up. The ref went their way, probably unintentionally and pressure from a French-supporting crowd. The sinbinning of McAlistair was simply wrong. He missed the crucial forward pass. The biggest issue remains the two problems that are ruining rugby. He allowed the French to be offside the whole game; and he allowed them at the breakdown to kill the ball. What should have happened was a series of penalties as the AB's pressured the French, yet in the second half we virtually saw none. These would have been converted into 3 points and we would have pulled away. It was one of the those days.

I listened to hours of talkback leading into this and it fulfilled the concerns of a few who realised that while this team is a great team, on any given day in a knock out tournament, with the rub of the green, they could lose. A lot of people were concerned at the preparation of the AB's but this time the public got behind the AB's rather than getting critical before the event. Sadly they are right.

Personally, I do not think they choked, I think they were beaten by a better team and were not prepared properly. I believe this is a great AB team. It is sad that Henry got fancy on it, he had the team, they didn't need to do all the reconditioning, resting and rotation! All he and the team had to do was coach them well, get their combinations strong, play them and let them loose! We have so much depth at home, if we lost a few players through injury leading in, we could bring in the newbies.

Still it is not the end of the world. NZ will win the cup one of these days, they will get it right, they will get the rub of the green, they will win. I still salute Graham Henry as he goes out, he is a great coach. So are Smith and Hanson. But they are all gone now! Welcome Robbie Deans, they are all yours. Bring on 2011.

Finally, let's get over the world cup and enjoy rugby for rugby's sake. Let's see the players play. Let's see the players stop moaning about playing too much and enjoy the privilege of being paid for the thing they love. Let's enjoy the Tri-Nations, tours, Super 14, NPC and see the game sorted out at breakdown and offside line. Let's hope for a win in 2011, but let's not be World Cup obsessed. I say, play hard until then. About 4 weeks out, pick a team for another tournament. Train hard, play hard, be hard, well prepared through playing together week in week out not sitting in the gym, and have another go. As for the exit... bugger.

On Second Thoughts!

What a performance by Tonga. Sensational! Brilliant! South Africa got out of jail. It was the South African second team I suppose, so it doesn't mean a lot in one sense. On the other hand, Tonga exposed weaknesses in the South Africans.
Really NZ should win this world cup. England are average. Ireland are aweful. France are average as Argentina proved. South Africa and Australia can be good. But, if NZ plays to their potential, does not have a shocker, they should not lose this one. But we have said this before.
I really do hope they win. What sort of reception will Graham Henry and the team get if they do not! They will be hammered mercilessly. Talkback will be a free for all! I hope they win too because they have been so much better than the world for 4 years, it would be greatly sad if they do not.
I will go out on a limb. I think they will.

Kudos to Graham Henry

I was listening to Radio Sport today and I though Brendon Telfer made a brilliant point. He suggested that Graham Henry, Wayne Smith and Steve Hanson could not do much more to help NZ win the cup. Once they hit the quarters and it is knock out, it is no longer up to them but the players. I think he is so right. When they go onto the field, apart from a few substitutions, it is not the coaches any more but the players.

This got me thinking about John Mitchell and John Hart. Why were they so castigated. Especially Hart; it was the players going to sleep in 1999 that lost us that match, not Hart. In 2003 one could criticise MacDonald being picked, but it was the players who played so poorly and without vitality.

We need to mature as a nation and accept what happens. So I thought I would be the first to get in.

Regardless of the results at the world cup, Kudos to Graham Henry. He could do no more. They are brilliantly prepared. Some of us think that their combinations may not be quite what they could be. But the truth is, what a great three years! Awesome! We have been the best and no doubt are the best. Whether we win now depends on the players. It also depends on the other teams. Will one of these teams play the game of their lives e.g. France 1999? It also depends on the refs?

So I just want to say, well done Graham Henry. Regardless of the result, I honour you as a brilliant coach. I also pay tribute to John Mitchell and John Hart; hard luck, well done.

The Evidence: South Africa are the team to beat

In March this year I wrote (http://sportdivine.blogspot.com/2007_03_01_archive.html) that the final of the world cup will be NZ vs South Africa. I wrote, 'If this is the final it will be tumultuous, aggressive and incredibly close. I think the South Africans will be formidable if they get there and it will be anyones game. I do believe unless terrible injury intervenes (or food poisoning etc), NZ will win this one.'

I still think this, but the demolition of England today by SA 36-0 is evidence, SA are good, really good! I can't see them being stopped before the final. NZ will have to be at the absolute top of their game to compete and perhaps win.

Mind you, it is not clear how good SA are in light of the utter ineptitude of England. They have no pace to the breakdown, lumbering gorilla's in the forward pack, have no penetration and pace out wide. Robinson is a danger from broken play, but one man can do so much. So perhaps it was more about England's weakness. If so, then the northern teams are not a threat!

But it is tracking toward my prediction except for one thing, this could be the start of an era of greatness for SA. They have the makings of a great team.

Rugby World Cup Final

Without doubt the World Cup final will be battled out between the All Blacks and South Africa. The performance of the Bulls and Sharks indicates that this year we will see the genesis of a great South African team. The All Blacks are in the third year of greatness. It will be a clash of the titans with a mature team against a young team on the rise. Who will win? Can't say yet. We will have to see how the two teams scrub up in the Tri-Nations.

One of the questions is; is this All Black team still rising, at the top or on the decline. This will be revealed as the year unfolds. It will also depend on injuries, refereeing, goal kicking, how France scrub up (they could be the wildcard) and on the day sort of stuff.

But mark my words, as I see it, it will be an All Black South Africa final calling to mind the halcyon days of 1921, 1937, 1949, 1956, 1960, 1965, 1970, 1976 and 1981! South Africa are back and this could mean a resumption of the great days of All Black - Springbok clashes with the rest of the world lying in their wake.

Who will win this far out?

So how will the 2007 rugby world cup go?
It is time to work out the result... can I nail it this far out?
No doubt I will relook at this in the future.

Pool A includes England, South Africa, Samoa, USA, Tonga. Clearly England and South Africa will go through probably South Africa topping the pool. I like the look of the South Africans from what is happening in the Super 14.

Pool B includes Australia, Wales, Fiji, Canada, Japan. Australia will surely go through number 1 with Wales nos 2.

Pool C includes New Zealand, Scotland, Italy, Romania, Repechage 1 with NZ going through number one ahead of Scotland.

Pool D includes France, Ireland, Argentina, Georgia, Namibia. I think France will go through nos 1 (just) with Ireland nos 2 (wouldn't be surprised if it was reversed and Argentina threw in a surprise).

So the quarter finals will look something like this:
6 October:QF1: Australia vs England: Australia should take this one out but England will be a tough assignment and could win.
6 October: QF2: New Zealand vs Ireland: NZ should take this one too but again Ireland (or perhaps France/Argentina) will be a great challenge.
7 October:QF3: South Africa vs Wales: South Africa should romp home here.
7 October: QF4: France vs Scotland: France should win this easily. Or Ireland if things are reversed.

Then the Semi's will go like this
13 October:SF1: Australia vs NZ: I would expect NZ to win this but remember NZ have never beaten the Australians at a World Cup and this will be a one-off! Anything could happen.
14 October:SF2: South Africa v France: I actually think SA will win this. Time will tell, but I think they are on the rise.

Play off for 3rd.
19 October: Australia vs France. This will be won by the French who will be feeling terrible about losing the semi and will seek to make amends for their home fans. If they play NZ in this one it will be a terrible caning for the French because yet again the AB's will have blown it and will take it out on them! It won't save them from horrendous criticism if this occurs!

20 October: NZ vs South Africa: If this is the final it will be tumultuous, aggressive and incredibly close. I think the South Africans will be formidable if they get there and it will be anyones game. I do believe unless terrible injury intervenes (or food poisoning etc), NZ will win this one.

Here's hoping anyway!

From a NZ point of view this will be a huge challenge. To beat Ireland/France then Australia then South Africa/England in successive weeks is a huge challenge! If NZers think they have the cup in the bag, get real; this will be a gigantic challenge and it is anyone's cup!

So that's how I see it. What you think?