4 Year Cycles

Have you ever noticed that the Olympics fall every four years as do most sports in terms of world cups e.g. soccer, rugby, cricket etc.

Now that is a great idea in one sense as it makes it very special to win one. The problem is that it makes winning one of these events rather based too much on luck rather than on skill.

Take an athlete who gets a slight injury just before the Olympics (e.g. Sarah Ulmer in 2000) and thus it is 8 years between opportunities. Or take a rugby team that has a key player injured (Tana Umaga in 2003) at the wrong time or gets food poisoning before a final (All Blacks 1995) or has a one off shocker despite being the dominant team for the years before and after (1999, 2003 All Blacks). In addition, as we see in rugby of late, the internationals between world cups are being devalued because it is world cup or bust. The latest French team to come here is a joke!

I think we should look at a different model for judging greatness in sport rather than basing it on one performance on one week every four years or on a tournament every four years. In terms of Athletics etc, world championships and world records are a better judge than Olympic golds. In terms of rugby, world rankings and series and consistency should be rewarded. Winning a world cup is not the be all and end all surely.

I like the netball approach, a world champs every two years. Of course in cricket it is irrelevant as whatever cycle is used the Australians are so utterly superior that they win anyway!

The 2007 All Blacks Mark 1

So I was close. I missed Schwalger in the props.

I missed Hore at hooker; I should have realised they would go for him.

I got the locks. I am surprised at the loosies with Luaki missing out!

I am pleased Leonard got in, but I didn't think they would pick him yet... he is a rare talent. I feel sorry for Jimmy Cowan who has been in great form.

I am glad they went for Evans and not Donald; I am a great fan of Evans and believe Donald has some serious deficiencies.

The second fives picked themselves; Mauger and McAlister.

Great to see Toeava and Smith together; two styles at centre. I feel sorry for Nonu however; he is a game breaker.

So Howlett got the nod ahead of Gear at wing. Fair enough, he has played very well. I am not sure that he is a better option. Great to see Rokocoko in; he has been poorly treated at the Blues and I am confident he will be back to being the worlds number 1 or 2 again asap. I wonder if Smith is so brilliant that we are erring in promoting him; he could be a brilliant unexpected world cup player much like Williams in South Africa in 1970, Batty in 1972, S. Wilson in 1978, Kirwan in 1987, G. Wilson in 1994, Lomu in 1995 etc. Wings to me are different; when a brilliant young player comes through, they need to be let loose asap as they tend to lose pace and effectiveness. Everyone of these players except perhaps S. Wilson shone brightly for a short period; I hope we have not missed the boat with this rare talent.

I am glad Muliaina was picked at fullback; he is the best in the world, and in my view, one of the most complete fullbacks of all time. He may play centre but only if MacDonald really improves his game.

It is a good team! Good enough?

Van Dyk and Silver Ferns

Irene Van Dyk is not playing well. Her performances in England this week have been far below her brilliant best. She is the greatest team sportswoman I have ever seen but, is this the beginning of the end? Our mid court is a problem. Why we have to go back and pick a 36 year old even if she is a fine player. At her peak, she, Leslie Nicholl and Anna Rowberry were consistently out performed by the Australians; why bring her back now? Where are the young mid courters with pace and flair? Tutaia is sensational as is Casey Williams.

Having said that Irene is not playing well... she is not being fed well and the opposition defenders are getting away with murder. As I said in an earlier blog, they need a card system to stop blatant cheating. I thought the Aussie defenders played more cleanly; the English were a disgrace as was Anna Scarlett! Get on top of this netball!

I am concerned about the World Cup. They will have to get a speedier midcourt and get Irene and Tutaia working well. It should work with Maria shooting from wide out and Irene drawing away the defenders under the net. Can we do it?

All Black Team Prediction

In 45 minutes the AB's will be named. Here is my team:

Fullbacks: MacDonald, Muliaina
Wings: Sivivatu, Rokocoko, Gear
Centres: Smith, Tuiava
2nd Fives: McAlistar, Mauger
1st Fives: Carter, Evans
Half Backs: Weepu, Kelleher, Cowan
Nos 8: So'oailo, Lauaki
Flankers: McGaw, Collins, Masoe, Thorne
Locks: Williams, Jack, Flavell, Robinson
Props: Woodcock, Haymen, Tialata, Afoa
Hookers: Mealamu, Oliver, Whitcombe

We could see Muliaina at centre; but who would then be the other full back (Hamilton?; Howlett?)
Howlett may make wing? I would like to see Smith in there..
Nonu could knock Smith out.
Donald may be a bolter at first five
Leonard could be a bolter at halfback ahead of Cowan
Tuialii could be number eight with Lauaki at flanker for Thorne
Rawlinson could be lock and Flavell flanker for Thorne.
The fourth prop could be Demody, Schwalger, Crockett?
The third hooker could be Hore or Willis

We will see in 32 minutes

Attention Sports and Free to Air TV

I am one of the those people who do not subscribe to Sky TV. It is simply too expensive with our family costs. I live my life following sport on the net, papers, radio etc. It is a tragedy to me that I cannot watch at any reasonable time (except one game every Saturday night) the rugby, league, cricket, soccer, golf and other sports which are exclusively on Sky Sport. I think it is also destructive to the sports involved. A generation of NZer's are growing up who really do not get to watch these sports. This will affect playing numbers I think over time.

There is thus a gap in the Free to Air world for lesser known sports to make their move for the hearts of NZer's. There are some who do like surf lifesaving, motor sport and netball who retain their Free to Air commitment. What I am advocating is that those of you in minor sports like hockey, lacrosse, athletics, swimming, triathlon, biathlon, cycling etc move decisively to fill Free to Air TV with your products. This would mean that I can turn TV on on a weekend afternoon and have a feast of interesting entertainment. I see Maori TV are doing it with the lesser known league fixtures.

It seems to me that if this happens the landscape of NZ sport will change and the days of rugby, league, cricket dominance will be over. I also think that these major sports need to realise that they need to be on free-to-air TV consistently to capture the broader audience. In this way too, Sky TV will get more subscribers as people are hooked into their core sports. So go for it you lesser sports; fill the gap and show NZ that there is more to life than rugby... just!

Statues

I heard an interesting discussion today on Radio Sport about putting statues of prominent NZ sporting icons up at grounds. We move ever closer to true idolatry with sport in this nation. I love sport, but it must remain sport. The real stuff of life is found in people's struggles to provide, to live, to overcome pain. As I look around the world at Iraq, Zimbabwe etc, I realise that sport is just sport. Let's keep it in its right place; a wonderful expression of humanity; a way to release tension and experience competition; a far better option than war... It is just a game

Blues vs Sharks; Bulls vs Crusaders

So I should give my view of what will happen in these games tonight. I think they will be both won by the South African sides. I think the combination of the Ali Williams affair; Nucifora's wierd approaches to selection including the failure to start with all the All Blacks since they returned and especially for this game Ali Williams, Mealamu and Rokocoko; the injury to Luke McAlister; the failure to select a kicking back in the Blues esp. David Holwell; the home-ground advantage; the quality of the Sharks and the South African determination with their first home semi-final; the heat and humidity of Durban means that the Blues have little hope tonight. I expect them to be competitive but in the end fall short.

The Crusaders similarly will be well beaten by a team running at full throttle, on the Veldt, with the passion of a crazy home crowd and the advantage this will bring. Contrary to others, I think the Crusaders have the better chance. However, without Sommerville, Crockett; with Jack not fully fit; with Carter and McCaw not fully there yet; their chance is really little better than the Blues. I am not sure that they will ever get into the game.

In the big picture of the year it means little. I believe the South Africans and All Blacks will both be formidable whoever wins. I also know that these games are still anyones when they hit the field; but it will be a monumental effort for the NZers to get up for these games.

I hope we see Carter, McCaw, Mauger, Thorne and Flavell have big games whatever the outcome.

Rugby World Cup Final

Without doubt the World Cup final will be battled out between the All Blacks and South Africa. The performance of the Bulls and Sharks indicates that this year we will see the genesis of a great South African team. The All Blacks are in the third year of greatness. It will be a clash of the titans with a mature team against a young team on the rise. Who will win? Can't say yet. We will have to see how the two teams scrub up in the Tri-Nations.

One of the questions is; is this All Black team still rising, at the top or on the decline. This will be revealed as the year unfolds. It will also depend on injuries, refereeing, goal kicking, how France scrub up (they could be the wildcard) and on the day sort of stuff.

But mark my words, as I see it, it will be an All Black South Africa final calling to mind the halcyon days of 1921, 1937, 1949, 1956, 1960, 1965, 1970, 1976 and 1981! South Africa are back and this could mean a resumption of the great days of All Black - Springbok clashes with the rest of the world lying in their wake.

Netball Physicality

Today I sat down and watched the Magic (Waikato) play the Auckland based franchise the Diamonds in netball. It was a really good game with the Diamonds pipping the Magic rather surprisingly. Maria Tutaia was sensational in the circle for the Diamonds. The defences were rugged with Casey Williams playing very well.

What struck me was the way in which the Diamonds dealt with Irene van Dyk. Now I write as a Diamonds fan and supporter, but was totally shocked with the failure of the umpires to deal with the continuous contacts and over defending on the part of the two defenders Anna Scarlet and Stephanie Bond. They were all over her, contacting her, knocking the ball out of her hands and continuously breaking the rule to disrupt her. It worked but I think it ruined the game. The

Magic couldn't get the ball to her. I noticed the same tactics in Invercargill last week with the Sting and in the most recent games with Australia. I think the rules and umpiring are failing to stop perpetual offending.

Now I am all for tough defence but continuous fouls need to be sorted. To me Scarlett in particular should have been warned and sin binned. She deserved to be sent off. Her performance was on the one hand brilliant as she disprupted the greatest shooter in the history of the game and I think was a major reason the Diamonds won.

However, it is tragic that she was able to get away with it. I suggest that netball must come down on repeated offending and fouls. They need a foul system or a warning and sinbinning system or the game will degenerate into a farce.

I suspect that the netball world cup will be decided on this issue. The Australians will target Irene van Dyk with continuous and repeated fouls, contacting her and doing anything to disrupt her. Hopefully with Maria Tutaia and Donna Willkens we can counterpunch by them taking the bulk of the scoring.

So the message of this Blog is; sort out the fouls. Bring in a foul system a la basketball or have a warning and sin-bin/send off system (yellow/red card) and start using it. The game is already disrupted too much by whistle. Indeed, as the game goes professional next year, this will be essential as the level of athleticism continues to rise.

New Zealand at the World Cup

It is hard to know whether to feel good or bad about the NZ performance at the Cup. On the one hand they made the semi's and performed very well up until the last few games destroying England, the West Indies and South Africa.

On the other hand they flattered to decieve, losing decisively to Sri Lanka, Australia and Sri Lanka again in the semi. In the end, when the pressure came on, they did not rise up.

Over all I am deeply disappointed. In none of these important games did they compete. The losses to Sri Lanka were particularly disappointing because it was the same bogies that came home to destroy them; Murali, Malinga, Jayasuriya, Sangikara. Surely after playing Sri Lanka repeatedly for the last 3 years we could have done better. Then Fleming's over-confidence which served only to motivate Jayawardena etc! He has egg all over his face in my view.

Then there were the disappointing performances of Bond, Vetorri, Fleming, MacMillan, McCullem, Oram and co in the games that mattered. I still cannot erase the images of the batting capitulation in the semi final! It was not as if the dismissals were due to pressure; they were poor shots which demonstrated a tremendous lack of confidence or ability to function under pressure.

Styris was magnificent as was Bond in the earlier part of the tournament. I felt sorry for the young Ross Taylor whose injury caused him to lose form.

One wonders how much the loss of Vincent affected the team; it disrupted what had become a solution to the problem of the top order. His loss alone may have changed the balance of the tournament and team.

So all in all I am disappointed.

So what should happen? I do not think anyone has to be sacked immediately. Fleming has stood down. The players will be selected on form as they should be.

What about Bracewell? I am not sure he has the kind of character that lends itself best to an effective international cricket coach. He clearly has fallen out with players including Cairns and Astle. He is too strong a personality for me. I prefer the cricket coach to be a background guide and leader; giving strategy, selection, motivation, confidence, encouragement and managing the team well. The captain is the leader in the cricket and Fleming has not been the same under his management. Bracewell reminds me too much of John Mitchell when he was AB coach; too many wierd selections. He too struggled with some of the older more experienced players like Anton Oliver and Andrew Merhtons.

For me I would like to see John Wright get a crack. He has coached in the most difficult nation in the world and came up trumps. I think he would complement the likes of Fleming, Vetorri, Oram, McMillan and Styris who will give leadership. Otherwise, bring back Steve Rixon!

Technology and Cricket

Why on earth does cricket not use technology more?

It is great that they use technologies to adjudicate run outs, stumpings and the legitimacy of catches. I say why not go further and use it for caught behinds and for LBW's.

Anti-technology proponents argue it will slow the game down. How could it possibly? The game is already slow. It will give us something to look at in between balls. In most cases one or two quick looks brings clarity.

Another protest is that the LBW technology is not perfect yet. After watching cricket for the last 30 years I have to say it is more accurate than umpires! They haven't got a clue!

Similarly the extreme close up and use of audio technology to hear sound makes caught behinds far more accurate through technology.

I say get the umpire to go upstairs when it is unclear. The third umpire could even communicate to the on-field umpire when they feel something should get a second look.

I know NZ were slaughtered by Sri Lanka at the World Cup and they have no excuses, but the game may have been different without a couple of shockers!

So I say, let's get into the twenty-first century and use the technology. I think it adds to the suspense.

Cricket World Cup: What can we learn?

So Australia won the cricket world cup as I predicted on Monday 29 January in this blog. It was not even close; the truth is, they demolished the world! The supposedly next best in the world South Africa, the Kiwi's, the Sri Lankans and more swept aside. Hayden, Ponting, and all the bowlers were sublime. And when it really matters Gilchrist does what only Gilchrist can! So what can we learn.

1. Australia are the very best nation in the world.
2. Even with the retirement of Warne and now McGrath they will remain number one.
3. Pakistan, India and others need to sort their collective acts out. When one considers how many people play cricket in these nations, their performances were disappointing.
4. South Africa could not handle the pressure. I thought it was tragic that they felt that they had to play differently to win the semi against Australia. They tried to smash the Aussies instead of trusting themselves. This indicates that they were psyched out.
5. NZ for the fifth time could not make the final. This indicates that they are in much the same boat as South Africa.

As for the tournament itself it was a shocker; the worst international world cup I can remember in any sport. It started with a death. India and Pakistan capitulated absolutely embarrassingly meaning that the Super 8 lacked spark. West Indies underperformed and so the home nations did not get into it. The pricing and limitation on enjoyment at the games was seriously affected. The tournament was way too long; 2 games a day would sort that out! There were only one or two close games between the top teams. The umpiring was poor. Then it finished with boring semifinals with NZ slaughter by Sri Lanka and Australia demolishing South Africa. Finally, the Final was a farce. It should have been a 50 over match with extra days up their sleeves. Then the finish of the final was a joke!

But it didn't matter in the end. Australia are so far and away the best cricket nation in the world that I think it would have been better to simply award them the cup and save the world all the hassle. If they had, Bob Woolmer would still be alive.