4 Year Cycles

Have you ever noticed that the Olympics fall every four years as do most sports in terms of world cups e.g. soccer, rugby, cricket etc.

Now that is a great idea in one sense as it makes it very special to win one. The problem is that it makes winning one of these events rather based too much on luck rather than on skill.

Take an athlete who gets a slight injury just before the Olympics (e.g. Sarah Ulmer in 2000) and thus it is 8 years between opportunities. Or take a rugby team that has a key player injured (Tana Umaga in 2003) at the wrong time or gets food poisoning before a final (All Blacks 1995) or has a one off shocker despite being the dominant team for the years before and after (1999, 2003 All Blacks). In addition, as we see in rugby of late, the internationals between world cups are being devalued because it is world cup or bust. The latest French team to come here is a joke!

I think we should look at a different model for judging greatness in sport rather than basing it on one performance on one week every four years or on a tournament every four years. In terms of Athletics etc, world championships and world records are a better judge than Olympic golds. In terms of rugby, world rankings and series and consistency should be rewarded. Winning a world cup is not the be all and end all surely.

I like the netball approach, a world champs every two years. Of course in cricket it is irrelevant as whatever cycle is used the Australians are so utterly superior that they win anyway!

The 2007 All Blacks Mark 1

So I was close. I missed Schwalger in the props.

I missed Hore at hooker; I should have realised they would go for him.

I got the locks. I am surprised at the loosies with Luaki missing out!

I am pleased Leonard got in, but I didn't think they would pick him yet... he is a rare talent. I feel sorry for Jimmy Cowan who has been in great form.

I am glad they went for Evans and not Donald; I am a great fan of Evans and believe Donald has some serious deficiencies.

The second fives picked themselves; Mauger and McAlister.

Great to see Toeava and Smith together; two styles at centre. I feel sorry for Nonu however; he is a game breaker.

So Howlett got the nod ahead of Gear at wing. Fair enough, he has played very well. I am not sure that he is a better option. Great to see Rokocoko in; he has been poorly treated at the Blues and I am confident he will be back to being the worlds number 1 or 2 again asap. I wonder if Smith is so brilliant that we are erring in promoting him; he could be a brilliant unexpected world cup player much like Williams in South Africa in 1970, Batty in 1972, S. Wilson in 1978, Kirwan in 1987, G. Wilson in 1994, Lomu in 1995 etc. Wings to me are different; when a brilliant young player comes through, they need to be let loose asap as they tend to lose pace and effectiveness. Everyone of these players except perhaps S. Wilson shone brightly for a short period; I hope we have not missed the boat with this rare talent.

I am glad Muliaina was picked at fullback; he is the best in the world, and in my view, one of the most complete fullbacks of all time. He may play centre but only if MacDonald really improves his game.

It is a good team! Good enough?

Van Dyk and Silver Ferns

Irene Van Dyk is not playing well. Her performances in England this week have been far below her brilliant best. She is the greatest team sportswoman I have ever seen but, is this the beginning of the end? Our mid court is a problem. Why we have to go back and pick a 36 year old even if she is a fine player. At her peak, she, Leslie Nicholl and Anna Rowberry were consistently out performed by the Australians; why bring her back now? Where are the young mid courters with pace and flair? Tutaia is sensational as is Casey Williams.

Having said that Irene is not playing well... she is not being fed well and the opposition defenders are getting away with murder. As I said in an earlier blog, they need a card system to stop blatant cheating. I thought the Aussie defenders played more cleanly; the English were a disgrace as was Anna Scarlett! Get on top of this netball!

I am concerned about the World Cup. They will have to get a speedier midcourt and get Irene and Tutaia working well. It should work with Maria shooting from wide out and Irene drawing away the defenders under the net. Can we do it?

All Black Team Prediction

In 45 minutes the AB's will be named. Here is my team:

Fullbacks: MacDonald, Muliaina
Wings: Sivivatu, Rokocoko, Gear
Centres: Smith, Tuiava
2nd Fives: McAlistar, Mauger
1st Fives: Carter, Evans
Half Backs: Weepu, Kelleher, Cowan
Nos 8: So'oailo, Lauaki
Flankers: McGaw, Collins, Masoe, Thorne
Locks: Williams, Jack, Flavell, Robinson
Props: Woodcock, Haymen, Tialata, Afoa
Hookers: Mealamu, Oliver, Whitcombe

We could see Muliaina at centre; but who would then be the other full back (Hamilton?; Howlett?)
Howlett may make wing? I would like to see Smith in there..
Nonu could knock Smith out.
Donald may be a bolter at first five
Leonard could be a bolter at halfback ahead of Cowan
Tuialii could be number eight with Lauaki at flanker for Thorne
Rawlinson could be lock and Flavell flanker for Thorne.
The fourth prop could be Demody, Schwalger, Crockett?
The third hooker could be Hore or Willis

We will see in 32 minutes

Attention Sports and Free to Air TV

I am one of the those people who do not subscribe to Sky TV. It is simply too expensive with our family costs. I live my life following sport on the net, papers, radio etc. It is a tragedy to me that I cannot watch at any reasonable time (except one game every Saturday night) the rugby, league, cricket, soccer, golf and other sports which are exclusively on Sky Sport. I think it is also destructive to the sports involved. A generation of NZer's are growing up who really do not get to watch these sports. This will affect playing numbers I think over time.

There is thus a gap in the Free to Air world for lesser known sports to make their move for the hearts of NZer's. There are some who do like surf lifesaving, motor sport and netball who retain their Free to Air commitment. What I am advocating is that those of you in minor sports like hockey, lacrosse, athletics, swimming, triathlon, biathlon, cycling etc move decisively to fill Free to Air TV with your products. This would mean that I can turn TV on on a weekend afternoon and have a feast of interesting entertainment. I see Maori TV are doing it with the lesser known league fixtures.

It seems to me that if this happens the landscape of NZ sport will change and the days of rugby, league, cricket dominance will be over. I also think that these major sports need to realise that they need to be on free-to-air TV consistently to capture the broader audience. In this way too, Sky TV will get more subscribers as people are hooked into their core sports. So go for it you lesser sports; fill the gap and show NZ that there is more to life than rugby... just!

Statues

I heard an interesting discussion today on Radio Sport about putting statues of prominent NZ sporting icons up at grounds. We move ever closer to true idolatry with sport in this nation. I love sport, but it must remain sport. The real stuff of life is found in people's struggles to provide, to live, to overcome pain. As I look around the world at Iraq, Zimbabwe etc, I realise that sport is just sport. Let's keep it in its right place; a wonderful expression of humanity; a way to release tension and experience competition; a far better option than war... It is just a game

Blues vs Sharks; Bulls vs Crusaders

So I should give my view of what will happen in these games tonight. I think they will be both won by the South African sides. I think the combination of the Ali Williams affair; Nucifora's wierd approaches to selection including the failure to start with all the All Blacks since they returned and especially for this game Ali Williams, Mealamu and Rokocoko; the injury to Luke McAlister; the failure to select a kicking back in the Blues esp. David Holwell; the home-ground advantage; the quality of the Sharks and the South African determination with their first home semi-final; the heat and humidity of Durban means that the Blues have little hope tonight. I expect them to be competitive but in the end fall short.

The Crusaders similarly will be well beaten by a team running at full throttle, on the Veldt, with the passion of a crazy home crowd and the advantage this will bring. Contrary to others, I think the Crusaders have the better chance. However, without Sommerville, Crockett; with Jack not fully fit; with Carter and McCaw not fully there yet; their chance is really little better than the Blues. I am not sure that they will ever get into the game.

In the big picture of the year it means little. I believe the South Africans and All Blacks will both be formidable whoever wins. I also know that these games are still anyones when they hit the field; but it will be a monumental effort for the NZers to get up for these games.

I hope we see Carter, McCaw, Mauger, Thorne and Flavell have big games whatever the outcome.